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Koalisi kongkalikong

Dalam rangka:

  1. meramaikan diskusi publik mengenai koalisi parlemen,
  2. mengaktifkan kembali blog ini, dan
  3. mempopulerkan Publications Office FEB UGM,

berikut adalah abstrak dari working paper yang saya publikasikan disini.

Politics as an art of bargaining has gain prominent momentum following the victory of the president-elect Joko Widodo in Indonesia in 2014. This paper estimates the bargaining value of political parties facing two coalitions: the “Thin Coalition” that supports Joko Widodo, and the “Red & White Coalition” that supports Prabowo Subianto, the president candidate from the Gerindra Party. The estimation shows that the Golkar Party is more valuable for the “Red & White Coalition”, making them expensive to be maintained within this coalition. It suggests that the best choice for Golkar is to jump to the “Thin Coalition”, unless the “Red & White Coalition” provides substantial payoff to lure this party.

Kesimpulan diatas didasarkan atas 2 tabel berikut. Perhatikan nilai dari Golkar yang relatif sama pada Table 2 (jika koalisi dengan “Koalisi Ramping”) dan jauh berbeda pada Table 3 (jika koalisi dengan “Koalisi Merah Putih”). Untuk detilnya bisa mengunduh paper ini disini (pdf).

table 2 table 3

 

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